风险感知、保险认知与养殖户肉鸡保险购买意愿 ——基于肉鸡主产区的实证分析

风险管理是现代农业经营中的重要问题，随着农业市场化程度的加深，肉鸡产业面临着多种风险来源的冲击。农业保险作为有效的现代风险管理工具，在保障产业可持续发展、减少农户家庭收入波动方面发挥了重要作用。基于行为金融理论，利用江苏、安徽、山东、河南和辽宁5个肉鸡主产区的调研数据，运用有序Logit模型，分析风险感知与保险认知对养殖户保险购买意愿的影响，探讨两者间的交互影响机制。结果表明，尽管66.43%的农户认为肉鸡养殖保险在风险管控中的必要性较强，但86.43%的农户对保险内容的了解程度不高，仅有20.71%的农户具有强烈的保险购买意愿。生产风险感知对养殖户的保险购买意愿有促进作用。保险认知中，农户对保险重要性认知程度对其保险购买意愿有促进作用；农户对保险内容的了解程度对其保险购买意愿具有显著的抑制作用，主要由于当前肉鸡保险产品设计不合理，保险内容与农户需求不匹配，保险理赔效果不佳，对保险内容了解程度越高反而会降低农户的购买意愿。风险感知和保险认知间存在交互影响，即风险感知对农户保险购买意愿的提高效果会随着对保险重要性认知程度的提高而增强，随着对保险内容了解程度的提高而减弱。因此，政府应加强农户的风险管理教育与培训，提高其风险管理意识，同时完善和优化当前肉鸡保险的内容，使之与农户需求相匹配，并通过更广泛的宣传来提高养殖户对于肉鸡保险的认知，从而增强农户对保险的购买意愿。     

长江中下游冬油菜产区有机无机肥配施下减氮增效潜力分析

【目的】评估长江中下游冬油菜主产区化肥减施增效的潜力与区域适宜性,为该区域油菜产业减肥增效提供科学依据。【方法】于2018年在江苏（高淳）、湖南（安仁）、湖北（沙洋）、安徽（休宁和当涂）四省（共5个地点）布置以有机肥（M）用量（0、2 250 kg·hm^-2）和施氮（N）水平（0、90、135、180、225、270 kg·hm^-2）为控制因素的冬油菜田间试验,分析有机无机肥配施对油菜产量、化学氮肥利用率和经济效益的影响,并评估不同区域冬油菜最佳产量和施肥效益下适宜的有机无机配施技术模式及其减肥潜力。【结果】相比于单施化肥,增施有机肥显著提升油菜产量,增产幅度达7.7%—43.3%。以最高产量为目标,各试验点在增施有机肥的基础上推荐化肥氮施用量分别为：高淳195 kg·hm^-2,安仁199 kg·hm^-2,沙洋195 kg·hm^-2,休宁179 kg·hm^-2,当涂185 kg·hm^-2。通过模型拟合发现各试验点达到单施化肥最高产量时,有机肥施用可替代26.7%—45.9%的化肥氮投入,且随着土壤基础肥力提高,化肥氮减施潜力增加。不同有机肥用量下,油菜化学氮肥利用率均随施氮量的增加呈下降趋势,但有机无机配施能够有效提高各氮肥梯度下油菜的化学氮肥偏生产力和农学效率,各试验点化学氮肥偏生产力增幅为24.4%—53.0%,化学氮肥农学利用效率增幅为26.3%—89.9%。与不施氮处理（N₀）相比,安仁、休宁和当涂试验点在施用180 kg N·hm^-2并配施有机肥处理下增收效益最大,依次为8 915、10 358和6 569元/hm²;而高淳和沙洋试验点在单施化肥（225 kg N·hm^-2）处理下增收效益最大,分别为11 252、8 500元/hm²。【结论】长江中下游部分冬油菜产区采用有机无机肥配施技术可实现减化肥氮26.7%—45.9%的同时提高籽粒产量、化学氮肥利用率及氮肥或有机肥增收效益,实现减氮增效。     

汀江似鮈(Pseudogobio vaillanti)生态环境和繁殖特性的调查

2014—2015年对宣成到官庄境内似鮈生活的汀江河段进行实地考察和采样,结果表明该江段水温、溶解氧和pH分别在17.2~28.5℃、7.03~8.63 mg/L和6.75~6.83之间变化;似鮈喜欢栖息多砾石或沙石的环境,一般隐蔽在石缝里。汀江似鮈每年4—7月为繁殖期,产卵盛期为5—6月;性成熟年龄为1~2龄,体重在8.1~56.3 g之间;雌鱼怀卵量为213~550粒/尾,相对繁殖力为20~120粒/g·体重,成熟系数为1.07%~8.37%,雄鱼成熟系数为0.41%~4.85%;产沉性卵,深黄色,卵径为(0.762±0.015)mm。产卵场水深约1.5~2.5 m,溶解氧为7.85~8.41 mg/L,水温为18.6~26.7℃,pH在6.8~7.2之间,底质以沙砾为主。     

A century of fishery data documenting the collapse of smooth‐hounds (Mustelus spp.) in the Mediterranean Sea

1. Conservation and management of shark populations is increasingly becoming important in many marine regions, since there is a growing body of evidence showing that several species are threatened and continuing to decline because of unregulated fishing. Quantifying the extent of sharks' decline, the risk of species extinction, and the consequences for marine ecosystems have been challenging and controversial, mostly due to data limitations.
2. In this study, more than one century of multiple‐sources of bibliographic records on presence and frequency of occurrence of three species of commercial sharks, the smooth‐hounds Mustelus spp., in the Mediterranean Sea were compiled and analysed. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) were used to estimate the rate of change of two of these species, Mustelus mustelus and Mustelus punctulatus, in four Mediterranean regions.
3. Model results showed that smooth‐hounds have declined by 80–90% since the beginning of last century to almost disappear in a large part of their original distributional range during the 1980s and 1990s.
4. Based on modelling results, a revision of the current International Union for Conservation of Nature classification of Mediterranean smooth‐hounds would be advisable along with the application of urgent conservation measures.

     

The pelagic habitat analysis module for ecosystem‐based fisheries science and management

We have developed a set of tools that operate within an aquatic geographic information system to improve the accessibility, and usability of remote‐sensed satellite and computer‐modeled oceanographic data for marine science and ecosystem‐based management. The tools form the Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module (PHAM), which can be applied as a modeling platform, an investigative aid in scientific research, or utilized as a decision support system for marine ecological management. Applications include fisheries, marine biology, physical and biological oceanography, and marine spatial management. The GIS provides a home for diverse data types and automated tools for downloading remote sensed and global circulation model data. Within the GIS environment, PHAM provides a framework for seamless interactive four‐dimensional visualization, for matching between disparate data types, for flexible statistic or mechanistic model development, and for dynamic application of user developed models for habitat, density, and probability predictions. Here we describe PHAM in the context of ecosystem‐based fisheries management, and present results from case study projects which guided development. In the first, an analysis of the purse seine fishery for tropical tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean revealed oceanographic drivers of the catch distribution and the influence of climate‐driven circulation patterns on the location of fishing grounds. To support management of the Common Thresher Shark (Alopias vulpinus) in the California Current Ecosystem, a simple empirical habitat utilization model was developed and used to dynamically predict the seasonal range expansion of common thresher shark based on oceanographic conditions.     

Growth and yield responses of upland NERICAs to variable water management under field conditions

This study aimed to investigate the possible causes for inconsistent performances of upland New Rice for Africa (NERICA) varieties in uplands and lowlands, while identifying important determinants in grain yield under deficient soil moisture. We compared the growth and yield of NERICA 1 and NERICA 5 to those of Yumenohatamochi, a Japanese upland variety, and Hinohikari, a Japanese lowland variety, subjected to different water management regimes (continually flooded, supplementary irrigation, and non-irrigation). Under conditions of deficient soil moisture, panicle number per square meter, spikelet number per panicle, and 1000-grain weight of NERICAs decreased, whereas the panicle number of the Japanese varieties experienced little change. In contrast, the grain filling ratio was unaffected by water management, irrespective of variety. The primary source of yield reduction under low soil water conditions was a decrease in spikelet number per panicle, and water stress intensity was the primary factor for the degree of this reduction. Variation in the abortion of secondary rachis-branches caused differences between NERICAs in their spikelet number response to soil moisture deficiency. The inconsistency in NERICA performance across uplands vs. lowlands can be partially attributed to variation in yield response to low soil water conditions. Moreover, water stress intensity and the presence of a water gradient along the vertical soil profile may combine to affect the fluctuation in NERICA performance under upland conditions.     

Ecoviability for ecosystem‐based fisheries management

Reconciling food security, economic development and biodiversity conservation is a key challenge, especially in the face of the demographic transition characterizing many countries in the world. Fisheries and marine ecosystems constitute a difficult application of this bio‐economic challenge. Many experts and scientists advocate an ecosystem approach to manage marine socio‐ecosystems for their sustainability and resilience. However, the ways by which to operationalize ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) remain poorly specified. We propose a specific methodological framework—viability modelling—to do so. We show how viability modelling can be applied using four contrasted case‐studies: two small‐scale fisheries in South America and Pacific and two larger‐scale fisheries in Europe and Australia. The four fisheries are analysed using the same modelling framework, structured around a set of common methods, indicators and scenarios. The calibrated models are dynamic, multispecies and multifleet and account for various sources of uncertainty. A multicriteria evaluation is used to assess the scenarios’ outcomes over a long time horizon with different constraints based on ecological, social and economic reference points. Results show to what extent the bio‐economic and ecosystem risks associated with the adoption of status quo strategies are relatively high and challenge the implementation of EBFM. In contrast, strategies called ecoviability or co‐viability strategies, that aim at satisfying the viability constraints, reduce significantly these ecological and economic risks and promote EBFM. The gains associated with those ecoviability strategies, however, decrease with the intensity of regulations imposed on these fisheries.     

Long‐term habitat loss in a lightly‐disturbed population of the Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphin,Sousa chinensis

1. Coastal and estuarine waters are important ecosystems with high primary and secondary productivity, but they are prone to the impacts of habitat loss caused by anthropogenic activities. For species exclusively inhabiting coastal and estuarine waters, such as the Indo‐Pacific humpback dolphin, Sousa chinensis , irreversible habitat loss can have dramatic implications for population viability.
2. A Landsat image database was used to determine the extent of coastal changes along the northern Beibu Gulf, where a large humpback dolphin population is found. The results were compared with the standardized sighting gradient (SPUF) determined from a questionnaire survey of fishermen and likely core habitats identified by application of a global digital elevation model.
3. Both SPUF and likely core habitat results indicated a continuous distribution of the humpback dolphin along the northern Beibu Gulf. Landsat images revealed that 129.6 km² of coastal waters were permanently lost in the past 40 years, 60 km² within the likely core habitats. Although this may be considered small, the impact of such habitat loss could be substantial in some local habitats.
4. The humpback dolphin population in the northern Beibu Gulf should be regarded as one management unit, with two or more social subunits. Immediate systematic surveys are needed to fill information gaps on true distribution range and habitat‐use patterns.
5. Habitat protection actions for dolphins in the northern Beibu Gulf should include both core and linking habitats, including enacting protected areas in core habitats, mitigating anthropogenic impacts in likely habitats, restoring both coastal waters and surrounding landscape quality, effective treatment of industrial sewage discharge, and comprehensive environmental impact assessments for the planning of coastal development projects.

     

基于“3S”技术的辽宁省某尾矿库扩容工程生态影响预测与评价

以辽宁省某尾矿库为例,基于GIS技术,利用2010年的TM遥感影像及地形图,预测该尾矿库扩容后的生态影响。分析结果显示:尾矿库扩容工程对生态的影响主要体现在土地利用、植被、生态景观和地形地貌的变化4个方面。     

池塘养殖尾水经稻田生态工程净化后的浮游细菌群落特征

为利用稻田生态工程对精养池塘尾水进行循环利用,采用Illumina Mi Seq第二代测序技术比较分析了稻田生态工程进出水中浮游细菌群落结构和多样性差异,以探讨稻田生态工程净化回用水中浮游细菌群落变化对池塘养殖的影响。结果显示,稻田生态工程进出水中优势浮游细菌在门水平上的组成相同,均为蓝细菌门(Cyanobacteria)、变形菌门(Proteobacteria)、放线菌门(Actinobacteria)、浮霉菌门(Planctomycetes)和拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes)。但优势门类的相对丰度发生变化,蓝细菌门的相对丰度由进水中的46.72%显著降低至表面流出水中的41.82%和渗流出水中的34.77%;而放线菌门的相对丰度由3.90%增加至表面流出水中的5.65%和渗流出水中的6.45%。属水平上优势浮游细菌组成也相同,但微囊藻属(Microcystis)的相对丰度由0.83%显著降低至渗流出水中的0.46%(P0.05)。另外,稻田生态工程表面流出水中浮游细菌物种丰富度指数(Chao 1)显著提高,渗流出水中Shannon多样性指数显著提高,且Simpson指数显著降低(P0.05)。